Colorado Rockies at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean SullivanPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Butler singled to center, Muncy scored, Bolte to third.4–6
- 7Butler scored, Cortes to third.4–5
- 7Butler scored, Cortes to third.4–5
- 6Muncy doubled to center, Gelof scored and Wilson scored.4–4
- 6Carrigg homered to right center, Karros scored and Rumfield scored.4–2
- 6Johnston hit sacrifice fly to center, Castro scored, Karros to third.1–2
- 5Kurtz homered to right center (471 feet).0–2
- 5Langeliers homered to center (450 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 66%
- ML COL +178 / ATH -219
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 64.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATH -191
- COL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 6.0 – 7.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 13.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +17 | COL: Sean Sullivan (no track record yet) · ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +100 Elo | ATH 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–23 | Road vs home | 13–1826th of 30 |
| 1st of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301403 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–34 | 36–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 34–31 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–33–3 | 33–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–6 ATH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
