Milwaukee Brewers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Jonah HeimBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gelof homered to center (427 feet).5–7
- 6Yelich singled to center, Mitchell scored on error, Hamilton to second, Yelich to second, Hamilton safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Bolte.5–6
- 6Frelick grounded out to shortstop, Bauers scored, Mitchell to second.4–6
- 5Heim homered to center (426 feet).3–6
- 5Soderstrom homered to right center (354 feet), Langeliers scored.3–5
- 4Frelick singled to center, Mitchell scored.3–3
- 2Bolte homered to right center (446 feet), Heim scored.2–3
- 1Kurtz homered to right center.2–1
- 1Chourio homered to right (354 feet), Yelich scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML MIL -113 / ATH -107
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.6%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -103
- ATH +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 6.8 – 6.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 13.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +7 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +53 Elo | MIL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–10 | Road vs home | 11–1828th of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301564 | Elo rating | 147625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–27 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31–2 | 33–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–5 ATH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
