Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rooker homered to left (386 feet).1–5
- 3Paredes hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored.0–5
- 3Walker tripled to right, Alvarez scored.0–4
- 1Paredes homered to left center (376 feet), Peña scored and Alvarez scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML ATH -105 / HOU -115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- ATH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.5 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 14–1824th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 148918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–29 | 29–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 28–10 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders | 31–28–3 | 35–25–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 18–24 HOU in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.