Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Astros- Cam SmithBatting2-3
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rooker homered to left center (397 feet).5–0
- 4Gelof scored on error, Kurtz safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Peña.4–0
- 3Rooker doubled to left, Langeliers scored.3–0
- 3Kurtz homered to right center (389 feet), Williams scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML ATH -110 / HOU -109
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 46.5%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- HOU +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.5 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +24 Elo | HOU 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 16–1823rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 25th of 301474 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–31 | 31–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 28–12 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders | 32–29–3 | 36–26–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 18–26 HOU in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 44.