Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting2-5
- Kade MorrisPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Astros- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Peña doubled to left, Meyers scored and Vázquez scored.2–13
- 5Vázquez doubled to left, Wade Jr. scored, Meyers to third.2–11
- 5Meyers singled to right, Altuve scored, Wade Jr. to third.2–10
- 5Wade Jr. doubled to right, Walker scored and Paredes scored, Altuve to third.2–9
- 3Altuve homered to left (352 feet).2–7
- 3Gelof walked, Rooker scored, Bolte to second, Soderstrom to third.2–6
- 3Soderstrom singled to center, Kurtz scored, Rooker to third.1–6
- 2Alvarez homered to right (369 feet), Trammell scored, Vázquez scored and Peña scored.0–6
- 2Wade Jr. homered to left center (359 feet).0–2
- 1Paredes hit sacrifice fly to left, Alvarez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML ATH +108 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.8%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -118
- ATH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.6 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | ATH: Kade Morris (no track record yet) · HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +33 Elo | HOU 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 15–1824th of 30 |
| 4th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 149117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–30 | 30–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 28–11 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29–3 | 35–26–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 18–25 HOU in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.