Milwaukee Brewers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting4-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Grant AndersonPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 12Turang grounded into fielder's choice to second, Yelich scored.15–14
- 10Heim homered to right (398 feet).14–14
- 10Kurtz homered to right (447 feet), Langeliers scored.14–13
- 10Langeliers singled to center, Bolte scored.14–11
- 10Contreras homered to center (463 feet), Yelich scored and Turang scored.14–10
- 10Chourio hit sacrifice fly to right, Hamilton scored, Yelich to second.11–10
- 9Vaughn doubled to left, Perkins scored and Contreras scored.10–10
- 8Rengifo scored on Leiter Jr. wild pitch, Yelich to third on wild pitch by Leiter Jr..8–10
- 8Rengifo scored on Leiter Jr. wild pitch, Yelich to third on wild pitch by Leiter Jr..8–10
- 7Soderstrom homered to center (418 feet).7–10
- 7Bauers homered to center (457 feet), Chourio scored.7–9
- 6Kurtz homered to left (374 feet).5–9
- 5Vaughn doubled to center, Contreras scored.5–8
- 3Gelof homered to left (391 feet).4–8
- 3Soderstrom homered to center (434 feet), Rooker scored and Muncy scored.4–7
- 3Muncy singled to center, Kurtz scored and Thomas scored, Rooker to third.4–4
- 3Vaughn homered to center (420 feet).4–2
- 3Turang homered to center (443 feet), Chourio scored.3–2
- 2Williams doubled to right, Gelof scored.1–2
- 1Langeliers homered to left center (421 feet).1–1
- 1Bauers singled to left, Chourio scored, Contreras to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML MIL -157 / ATH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.9%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -141
- ATH +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.9 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −12 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +99 Elo | MIL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–10 | Road vs home | 11–1727th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301564 | Elo rating | 147725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–26 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 29–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31–2 | 32–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–5 ATH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
