Milwaukee Brewers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Butler homered to center (463 feet), Gelof scored.3–4
- 7Cortes homered to right center (461 feet).3–2
- 6Williams homered to left (371 feet).3–1
- 3Chourio homered to center.3–0
- 2Sánchez homered to left center.2–0
- 1Vaughn singled to right, Yelich scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML MIL -105 / ATH -114
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 43.5%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 7.5 – 7.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 15
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +4 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +46 Elo | MIL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 12–1828th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301562 | Elo rating | 147825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–28 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32–2 | 33–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–6 ATH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
