Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Brett SullivanBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sullivan homered to right (388 feet).9–3
- 8Kelly homered to left (428 feet).9–2
- 7Bregman homered to left (410 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.8–2
- 5Happ hit sacrifice fly to left, Bregman scored.6–2
- 5Busch singled to right, Swanson scored, Bregman to third.5–2
- 4Carrigg homered to right (418 feet).4–2
- 4Suzuki homered to left (400 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored, Busch scored and Happ scored.4–1
- 3Sullivan homered to right (434 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CHC -168 / COL +139
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.8%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -150
- COL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.9 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −9 | CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +84 Elo | CHC 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 14–1926th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 30 |
| 7th of 301514 | Elo rating | 140530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–44 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–32 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 34–30 |
| Overs–unders | 34–29–5 | 32–33–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–7 COL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.