Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thompson singled to right, Johnston scored, Sullivan to second.2–3
- 9Happ homered to right center (424 feet).2–2
- 8Rumfield homered to right (383 feet), Julien scored.1–2
- 4Ballesteros grounded out to first, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML CHC -175 / COL +144
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.2%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- CHC -155
- COL +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 6.5 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +94 Elo | CHC 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 13–1927th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 30 |
| 7th of 301516 | Elo rating | 140430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–43 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 33–30 |
| Overs–unders | 34–28–5 | 32–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–6 COL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.