Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Endy RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe homered to center (391 feet).8–3
- 8Hicks homered to right (356 feet), Sanoja scored.8–2
- 7Caissie doubled to center, Hernández scored and Stowers scored.6–2
- 7Hernández singled to left, Lopez scored, Stowers to second.4–2
- 7Edwards hit sacrifice fly to center, Hicks scored.3–2
- 5Rodríguez homered to right center (393 feet).2–2
- 5Stowers singled to right, Hicks scored.2–1
- 5Lopez grounded out to shortstop, Sanoja scored, Hicks to third.1–1
- 3Triolo singled to left, Rodríguez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML MIA +119 / PIT -143
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +30 Elo | PIT 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.36th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 19–1716th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 149316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–38 | 33–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 14–21 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–27–3 | 40–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–12 PIT in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.