Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-3
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Caissie hit sacrifice fly to right, Hernández scored, Marsee to third.0–8
- 4Stowers homered to right (425 feet), Hicks scored and Lopez scored.0–7
- 4Lopez singled to center, Sanoja scored, Lopez to second, Hicks to third.0–4
- 4Caissie homered to right (370 feet), Hernández scored.0–3
- 3Lopez singled to center, Hicks scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -118 / MIA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ARI -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −19 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +18 Elo | ARI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 21–1610th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 14th of 301504 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–28 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 14–21 |
| Overs–unders | 29–32–5 | 39–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–10 MIA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.