Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- LuJames GrooverBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ruiz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lile scored, Nuñez out at third.6–1
- 9Nuñez singled to right, Crews scored, Lile to third.5–1
- 7Nuñez hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Young scored.4–1
- 7Crews homered to left center (432 feet).3–1
- 5Groover singled to center, Smith scored on error, Groover safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Young, Groover safe at third on error.2–1
- 1Mead homered to left center (411 feet), Wood scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 59%
- ML WSH +134 / ARI -162
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 60.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +18 | WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +73 Elo | ARI 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–12 | Road vs home | 19–126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 28th of 301469 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–26 | 37–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 34–18 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–20–4 | 28–30–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–12 ARI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.