San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting3-4
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Chaparro doubled to left, Nuñez scored, Wood to third.2–4
- 7Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to center, Merrill scored, France to third.2–3
- 7France doubled to left, Bogaerts scored, Merrill to third.1–3
- 5Wood homered to center (417 feet), Ruiz scored.0–3
- 4García Jr. homered to center (402 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML SD -110 / WSH -109
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- SD: Elo 52.9%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- WSH +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −2 | SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +20 Elo | SD 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.430th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–8 | Road vs home | 11–1729th of 30 |
| 27th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 147028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–29 | 36–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 33–18 |
| Overs–unders | 23–32–2 | 37–18–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 14–6 WSH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.