San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrill homered to right center (414 feet), Bogaerts scored.7–5
- 6France homered to left center (413 feet).5–5
- 5Young singled to center, Mead scored, Abrams to second.4–5
- 4Tatis Jr. singled to right, France scored.4–4
- 4Fermin grounded out to shortstop, Laureano scored, France to second.3–4
- 3Crews singled to center, Abrams scored.2–4
- 3Machado singled to right, Sheets scored.2–3
- 2Ruiz homered to right center (382 feet).1–3
- 1Mead homered to center (414 feet), Wood scored.1–2
- 1Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to left, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML SD -104 / WSH -116
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 46.9%, market 51.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -105
- SD +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +22 | SD: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Paxton Schultz: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +22 Elo | SD 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3014–7 | Road vs home | 10–1629th of 30 |
| 27th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Elo rating | 146828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–28 | 35–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 21–32–2 | 35–18–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–5 WSH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.