Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lile hit sacrifice fly to left, Mead scored.2–3
- 5Martínez singled to center, DeLauter scored, Manzardo to second.1–3
- 5DeLauter singled to left, Bazzana scored.1–2
- 5Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Hedges scored.1–1
- 3Abrams doubled to right, Wood scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML WSH +148 / CLE -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.0%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +10 | WSH: PJ Poulin: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +56 Elo | CLE 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–11 | Road vs home | 15–1210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 27th of 301469 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–22 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 31–18 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 35–17–4 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–6 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.