Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6García Jr. singled to center, Lile scored and Young scored, Millas to third.10–2
- 5Mead homered to left (373 feet).8–2
- 4Martínez doubled to left, Manzardo scored.7–2
- 3Abrams homered to right (403 feet).7–1
- 2Hoskins homered to left (377 feet).6–1
- 2García Jr. homered to right (352 feet), Wood scored.6–0
- 2Young homered to left center (389 feet).4–0
- 1Mead homered to left center (401 feet), García Jr. scored.3–0
- 1Wood homered to right center (412 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 60%
- ML WSH +139 / CLE -169
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.4%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -150
- WSH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −3 | WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +80 Elo | CLE 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 15–107th of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 28th of 301462 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–22 | 30–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 33–17–4 | 26–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–6 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.