Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Will DionPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez grounded out to third, Rocchio scored.6–3
- 9Bazzana doubled to right, Kwan scored, Rocchio to third.6–2
- 9Chaparro singled to left, Nuñez scored and Wood scored, Chaparro out stretching at second.6–1
- 5Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored.4–1
- 2Wood homered to right (401 feet), Ruiz scored.4–0
- 2Ruiz singled to center, Lile scored and Young scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML WSH +109 / CLE -132
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +9 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +83 Elo | CLE 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 15–119th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 27th of 301466 | Elo rating | 15218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–22 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 30–18 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–17–4 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–6 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.