San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Drew MillasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mead doubled to left, Millas scored and Crews scored.4–9
- 8Machado doubled to left, Andujar scored.4–7
- 7Lile grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mead scored, García Jr. out at second.3–7
- 7García Jr. singled to center, Crews scored and Millas scored, Mead to third.3–6
- 7Mead walked, Vivas scored, Millas to second, Crews to third.3–4
- 7Padres challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Drew Millas reaches on a fielder's choice. José Tena scores. Jorbit Vivas to 3rd. Dylan Crews to 2nd.3–3
- 7Crews hit by pitch, Abrams scored, Vivas to second, Tena to third.3–2
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to left (451 feet).3–1
- 4Machado homered to left (362 feet).2–1
- 3Millas homered to right (397 feet).1–1
- 2Bogaerts homered to center (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SD -136 / WSH +113
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SD: Elo 54.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +32 Elo | SD 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.530th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–7 | Road vs home | 10–1729th of 30 |
| 27th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301521 | Elo rating | 146728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–28 | 35–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 22–32–2 | 36–18–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 14–5 WSH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.