Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-6, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Aramis GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vivas singled to left, Mead scored, Lile to second, Abrams to third.14–1
- 8Crews hit by pitch, Mead scored, Vivas to second, Abrams to third.13–1
- 6Abrams homered to right center (386 feet).12–1
- 6García Jr. homered to center (427 feet), Millas scored, Nuñez scored and Wood scored.11–1
- 5Lile homered to right center (393 feet).7–1
- 3A. Garcia homered to left center (409 feet).6–1
- 3Vivas doubled to right, Abrams scored and Lile scored.6–0
- 3Lile singled to center, Tena scored, Abrams to third.4–0
- 3Wood homered to center (419 feet).3–0
- 1García Jr. homered to right (363 feet), Wood scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML WSH +113 / ARI -136
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +4 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +65 Elo | ARI 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–12 | Road vs home | 19–115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 28th of 301464 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–26 | 37–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 33–18 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–20–4 | 27–30–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–12 ARI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.