Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Esteury RuizBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stowers tripled to right, Lopez scored.4–1
- 8Mack singled to right, Hicks scored and Marsee scored, Sanoja to third.3–1
- 3Crews grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ruiz scored, Wood safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Lopez, García Jr. to third.1–1
- 2Ruiz homered to left (365 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 52%
- ML MIA -117 / WSH -103
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.4%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -106
- WSH +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +11 Elo | WSH 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 12–1929th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 146628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–37 | 37–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 12–20 | 33–18 |
| Overs–unders | 38–21–3 | 39–19–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 24–20 WSH in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 44.