Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Owen CaissieBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Mets- MJ MelendezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Melendez homered to right (373 feet), Bruján scored.7–9
- 8Caissie homered to right center (397 feet), Marsee scored.7–7
- 7Melendez hit sacrifice fly to left, Bichette scored.5–7
- 7Lopez hit sacrifice fly to left, Edwards scored.5–6
- 5Stowers doubled to right, Lopez scored.4–6
- 5Lopez singled to right, Mack scored.3–6
- 4Torrens hit sacrifice bunt to catcher, Semien scored on throwing error by catcher Mack.2–6
- 4Marsee doubled to left, Stowers scored.2–5
- 3Vientos homered to left center (445 feet).1–5
- 3Edwards tripled to right, Caissie scored.1–4
- 1Baty singled to right, Young scored and Ewing scored.0–4
- 1Ewing singled to center, Bichette scored and Soto scored, Young to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML MIA -105 / NYM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +5 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +16 Elo | NYM 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 12–1524th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148530th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Elo rating | 148519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–34 | 23–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 10–17 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–21–2 | 23–28–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 20–22 NYM in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 42.