Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stowers homered to right center (391 feet), Lopez scored.7–3
- 9Hicks homered to right (379 feet).5–3
- 6Norby doubled to right, Marsee scored.4–3
- 6Hernández homered to left (406 feet), Jiménez scored.3–3
- 3Mead singled to left, Wood scored, Mead out stretching at second.1–3
- 2Young homered to left (393 feet), Abrams scored.1–2
- 1Owen Caissie challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Owen Caissie walks. Liam Hicks scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. Xavier Edwards to 2nd.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML MIA +115 / WSH -138
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.4%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -125
- MIA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +24 Elo | WSH 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 308–19 | Road vs home | 12–1728th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 147127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–37 | 37–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 10–20 | 33–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–21–3 | 37–19–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 22–20 WSH in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 42.