Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Jared YoungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soto singled to center, Benge scored, Bichette to second.1–6
- 7Senger homered to left center (386 feet).1–5
- 6Young homered to right (366 feet).1–4
- 5Hicks singled to right, Morel scored.1–3
- 4Semien singled to center, Vientos scored, Semien to second.0–3
- 4Vientos doubled to left, Soto scored and Young scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML MIA +105 / NYM -126
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.8%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 3.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +13 Elo | NYM 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 13–1523rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148530th of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 148719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–35 | 24–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 15–23 |
| Underdog | 10–18 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–21–2 | 24–28–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 20–23 NYM in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 43.