Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Owen CaissieBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- John KingPitching1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Soto homered to right center (433 feet), Torrens scored, Benge scored and Bichette scored.1–10
- 6Bichette walked, Semien scored, Benge to second, Torrens to third.1–6
- 4Torrens singled to right, Baty scored and Ewing scored, Semien to third.1–5
- 4Caissie doubled to left, Sanoja scored, Marsee to third.1–3
- 2Semien homered to left center (382 feet), Vientos scored.0–3
- 1Benge homered to center (418 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML MIA +133 / NYM -161
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.3%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -144
- MIA +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | MIA: John King (no track record yet) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +30 Elo | NYM 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 308–18 | Road vs home | 14–1521st of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148530th of 30 |
| 25th of 301475 | Elo rating | 148918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–36 | 25–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 10–19 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–21–3 | 24–28–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 20–24 NYM in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 44.