Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Lake BacharPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernández homered to left (397 feet), Marsee scored.7–3
- 9Mack hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Hicks scored, Marsee to second.5–3
- 7Ruiz grounded out to first, Lile scored, Crews to third.4–3
- 7Crews reached on infield single to third, Abrams scored on throwing error by third baseman Jiménez, Crews to second, Lile safe at third on error.4–2
- 6García Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ruiz scored, Young out at second.4–1
- 5Lopez homered to left (414 feet).4–0
- 5Hernández homered to center (403 feet).3–0
- 5Mack homered to center (410 feet), Caissie scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML MIA -106 / WSH -114
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.6%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | MIA: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Richard Lovelady: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +4 Elo | WSH 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 309–19 | Road vs home | 12–1828th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301474 | Elo rating | 146928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–37 | 37–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 11–20 | 33–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–21–3 | 38–19–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 23–20 WSH in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 43.