Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lake BacharPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz singled to right, Walls scored, Simpson to third.3–4
- 9Williamson scored on Fairbanks wild pitch, Walls to third on wild pitch by Fairbanks.2–4
- 9Williamson scored on Fairbanks wild pitch, Walls to third on wild pitch by Fairbanks.2–4
- 8Díaz doubled to center, Mesa Jr. scored, Fortes to third.1–4
- 6Hicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Jiménez scored, Sanoja to third.0–4
- 6Sanoja singled to right, Hernández scored, Jiménez to second.0–3
- 5Mack doubled to center, Ruiz scored.0–2
- 5Sanoja homered to left (362 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -131 / MIA +109
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- TB: Elo 50.8%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +5 Elo | TB 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 18–1615th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 147625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–24 | 26–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–13 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 13–21 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26–4 | 38–23–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–6 MIA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.