Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ty MaddenPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rays- Ryan ViladeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Williamson singled to right, Mullins scored and Fortes scored.10–9
- 8Fortes doubled to third, Caminero scored and Mesa Jr. scored, Mullins to third.10–7
- 8Carpenter doubled to left, Dingler scored.10–5
- 8Dingler doubled to center, Lee scored.9–5
- 6Vilade homered to left center (438 feet), Palacios scored and Caminero scored.8–5
- 6Lee homered to right (361 feet).8–2
- 5Dingler homered to center (415 feet).7–2
- 4Caminero homered to center (422 feet), Palacios scored.6–2
- 3Greene homered to center (428 feet).6–0
- 3Carpenter homered to right center (391 feet).5–0
- 3Dingler homered to center (428 feet), McGonigle scored.4–0
- 1Greene doubled to right, Dingler scored and McGonigle scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML DET +134 / TB -162
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- TB: Elo 57.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -145
- DET +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | DET: Ty Madden: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +54 Elo | TB 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.37th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–24 | Road vs home | 21–61st of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 24th of 301476 | Elo rating | 151510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–34 | 35–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 20–10 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 25–32–3 | 28–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–9 TB in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.