Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting1-3
- Tyler PhillipsPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vilade singled to center, Caminero scored, Díaz to second.6–0
- 6Mullins homered to right center (397 feet).5–0
- 5Aranda singled to center, Caminero scored.4–0
- 1Vilade singled to right, Palacios scored.3–0
- 1Palacios tripled to center, Caminero scored and Díaz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -131 / MIA +109
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- TB: Elo 52.1%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −19 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +15 Elo | TB 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 18–1512th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–24 | 26–37 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–13 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 13–20 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25–4 | 38–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–6 MIA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.