Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason EnglertPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to center, Torres scored, McGonigle to third.7–2
- 4Dingler homered to left (361 feet), Vierling scored and Torres scored.6–2
- 3Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to center, McGonigle scored.3–2
- 2Mullins homered to right center (399 feet).2–2
- 2Rogers homered to left (389 feet).2–1
- 1Díaz singled to center, Caminero scored, Aranda to second.1–1
- 1Dingler singled to left, Torres scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML DET +119 / TB -144
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- TB: Elo 54.7%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +6 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–24 | Road vs home | 21–81st of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 21st of 301481 | Elo rating | 151013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–34 | 35–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 20–12 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 26–32–4 | 29–25–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 11–9 TB in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.