Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mack grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ruiz scored and Marsee scored on fielding error by catcher Feduccia.1–4
- 6Stowers hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.1–2
- 6Lopez tripled to right, Hicks scored.1–1
- 3Díaz singled to center, Walls scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 50%
- ML TB -109 / MIA -111
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.5%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -101
- TB +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −6 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +11 Elo | TB 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 19–1613th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 12th of 301508 | Elo rating | 147724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–25 | 27–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–14 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 14–21 |
| Overs–unders | 30–27–4 | 38–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–7 MIA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.