Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored, Arenado to second, Moreno to third.1–5
- 5Moreno homered to left (368 feet), Troy scored.1–4
- 4Waldschmidt grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Arenado scored, Smith out at second. Arizona Diamondbacks challenged call on the field was overturned1–2
- 2Abrams homered to right (367 feet).1–1
- 1Carroll homered to center (417 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML WSH +114 / ARI -137
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 57.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −5 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +51 Elo | ARI 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–12 | Road vs home | 19–137th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–26 | 37–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 35–18 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–21–4 | 28–31–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–12 ARI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.