Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz doubled to left, Edwards scored, Sanoja to third.6–10
- 8Sanoja singled to center, Lopez scored and Norby scored, Edwards to third.6–9
- 8Lopez singled to center, Mack scored, Norby to second.6–7
- 8Carroll grounded out to first, Troy scored, Marte to second.6–6
- 8Marte singled to center, Perdomo scored and Waldschmidt scored, Troy to third.5–6
- 7Marte doubled to center, Troy scored.3–6
- 6Stowers doubled to center, Hicks scored and Lopez scored.2–6
- 6Hicks doubled to left, Mack scored, Norby to third.2–4
- 4Moreno homered to left center (417 feet).2–3
- 3Edwards hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.1–3
- 2Norby doubled to center, Mack scored.1–2
- 1Edwards singled to right, Lopez scored.1–1
- 1Carroll homered to right center (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML ARI +109 / MIA -132
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +3 Elo | MIA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 20–1610th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 148024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–27 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 14–21 |
| Overs–unders | 28–32–5 | 38–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–9 MIA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.