Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-4
- Tyler PhillipsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Marsee singled to center, Stowers scored, Caissie to third.0–2
- 1Edwards hit sacrifice fly to right, Lopez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML ARI +112 / MIA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 52.3%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -122
- ARI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +4 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +16 Elo | MIA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 22–168th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Elo rating | 148521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–29 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 16–17 |
| Underdog | 25–12 | 14–21 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33–5 | 39–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–11 MIA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.