Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Rafael Flores Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Flores Jr. doubled to right, Mangum scored.8–6
- 8Mangum doubled to center, Callihan scored.8–5
- 8Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Tucker scored.8–4
- 7Rushing scored on Sisk wild pitch, Espinal to second on wild pitch by Sisk, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Sisk.7–4
- 7Rushing scored on Sisk wild pitch, Espinal to second on wild pitch by Sisk, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Sisk.7–4
- 7Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to second, Call scored.6–4
- 5Horwitz singled to right, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.5–4
- 5Lowe homered to right (383 feet), Gonzales scored.5–3
- 5Flores Jr. homered to center (440 feet).5–1
- 4Pages scored on Keller wild pitch, Betts to second on wild pitch by Keller, Freeman to third on wild pitch by Keller.5–0
- 4Pages scored on Keller wild pitch, Betts to second on wild pitch by Keller, Freeman to third on wild pitch by Keller.5–0
- 4Freeman singled to left, Ohtani scored, Pages to third.4–0
- 3Tucker singled to left, Freeman scored and Pages scored, Muncy to third.3–0
- 3Ohtani homered to right center (391 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -200 / PIT +164
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.5%, market 63.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -176
- PIT +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +67 Elo | LAD 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.36th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 19–1612th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 1st of 301575 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–32 | 33–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–38–1 | 39–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–10 PIT in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.