Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Lake BacharPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Horwitz hit by pitch, Callihan scored, Triolo to second, Mangum to third.2–3
- 6Hernández singled to left, Edwards scored, Hernández to second, Stowers to third. Pittsburgh Pirates challenged call on the field was upheld2–2
- 3Reynolds doubled to center, Horwitz scored.1–2
- 3Hicks singled to left, Marsee scored.1–1
- 1O'Hearn singled to right, Horwitz scored, Lowe to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML MIA -105 / PIT -114
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.2%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −17 | MIA: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +12 Elo | MIA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.27th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 19–1818th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 149018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–38 | 33–37 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 14–22 |
| Underdog | 15–21 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 40–27–3 | 41–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 10–12 PIT in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.