Colorado Rockies at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting4-6, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rumfield homered to right.23–9
- 8Castro homered to right (444 feet), Karros scored, Johnston scored and Fulford scored.22–9
- 7Soderstrom homered to center (462 feet).18–9
- 7Tovar doubled to center, Goodman scored.18–8
- 7Goodman doubled to center, Rumfield scored.17–8
- 7Rumfield tripled to right, Freeman scored.16–8
- 7Freeman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Fulford scored, Castro out at second. Colorado Rockies challenged call on the field was overturned15–8
- 5Muncy homered to left (375 feet), Gelof scored.14–8
- 5Freeman tripled to center, Castro scored.14–6
- 5Castro singled to right, Johnston scored.13–6
- 5Fulford hit sacrifice fly to right, Karros scored, Johnston to third.12–6
- 5Johnston doubled to center, Carrigg scored, Karros to third.11–6
- 5Karros singled to left, Tovar scored, Carrigg to second.10–6
- 5Goodman homered to left.9–6
- 4Kurtz grounded out to first, McNeil scored, Williams to third.8–6
- 4Johnston homered to right, Karros scored.8–5
- 4Karros doubled to center, Carrigg scored.6–5
- 2Kurtz doubled to center, Williams scored.5–5
- 2Castro homered to left center, Karros scored.5–4
- 2Johnston grounded out to second, Carrigg scored, Karros to second.3–4
- 1Muncy hit sacrifice fly to left, Cortes scored.2–4
- 1Cortes singled to right, Kurtz scored and Soderstrom scored.2–3
- 1Soderstrom doubled to right, Butler scored, Kurtz to third.2–1
- 1Goodman homered to center (421 feet), Freeman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 64%
- ML COL +163 / ATH -198
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 58.0%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- ATH -175
- COL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 6.4 – 7.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 14
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −22 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +56 Elo | ATH 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 29th of 3012–25 | Road vs home | 15–1825th of 30 |
| 1st of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 30 |
| 30th of 301401 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–36 | 38–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 34–33 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35–3 | 33–34–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–8 ATH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
