Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reynolds homered to center (422 feet).4–2
- 8Edwards singled to center, Lopez scored, Stowers to second.4–1
- 8Stowers singled to center, Hicks scored, Lopez to third.3–1
- 4Mangum singled to center, Gonzales scored, Callihan to second.2–1
- 2Mack homered to center (424 feet).2–0
- 2Hernández homered to left center (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML MIA +135 / PIT -164
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -146
- MIA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.1 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −13 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +3 Elo | PIT 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.26th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 20–1818th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 149117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–38 | 33–38 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 16–21 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 40–28–3 | 41–28–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 10–13 PIT in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.