Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Castro grounded out to shortstop, Tovar scored, McCarthy to third.5–2
- 5B. Sullivan scored on Rolison wild pitch, McCarthy to second on wild pitch by Rolison, Tovar to third on wild pitch by Rolison.4–2
- 5B. Sullivan scored on Rolison wild pitch, McCarthy to second on wild pitch by Rolison, Tovar to third on wild pitch by Rolison.4–2
- 4Rumfield homered to right center (385 feet), Castro scored.3–2
- 4Castro doubled to center, McCarthy scored.1–2
- 2Shaw scored on Feltner wild pitch, Amaya to third on wild pitch by Feltner.0–2
- 2Shaw scored on Feltner wild pitch, Amaya to third on wild pitch by Feltner.0–2
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to right (386 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML COL +178 / CHC -219
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 68.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -191
- COL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 5.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −12 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +132 Elo | CHC 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–26 | Road vs home | 21–159th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 30th of 301405 | Elo rating | 15196th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–36 | 27–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 16–33 |
| Underdog | 36–33 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36–3 | 35–33–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–15 CHC in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.