Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Ramirez homered to center (414 feet).6–1
- 5Happ homered to left (404 feet).5–1
- 4Busch walked, Swanson scored, Bregman to second, Crow-Armstrong to third.4–1
- 3Arraez tripled to center, Gilbert scored.3–1
- 3Busch stole home, Happ stole second.3–0
- 3Busch stole home, Happ stole second.3–0
- 3Suzuki singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Busch to second.2–0
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to left center (385 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CHC -122 / SF +101
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.7%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -110
- SF +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +7 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +26 Elo | CHC 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 13–1928th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–44 | 31–39 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–32 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders | 35–30–5 | 34–31–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–12 SF in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.