Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Eldridge homered to center (405 feet).6–3
- 9Lile tripled to center, Abrams scored.6–2
- 7Lile walked, Wood scored, Crews to second, Chaparro to third.5–2
- 7Young scored on Miller wild pitch, Chaparro to second on wild pitch by Miller, Wood to third on wild pitch by Miller.4–2
- 7Young scored on Miller wild pitch, Chaparro to second on wild pitch by Miller, Wood to third on wild pitch by Miller.4–2
- 5Lee doubled to right, Arraez scored and Devers scored.3–2
- 5Wood singled to left, Young scored.3–0
- 1García Jr. homered to right (382 feet), Wood scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML WSH -112 / SF -108
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 47.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- SF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +14 Elo | SF 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–13 | Road vs home | 12–1726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–27 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 36–19 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders | 40–23–4 | 32–30–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 13–10 SF in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.