Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Eldridge homered to right (326 feet), Chapman scored, Devers scored and Lee scored.10–11
- 9Chapman doubled to right, Arraez scored.10–7
- 9Mead homered to left center (399 feet).10–6
- 8Susac scored on Ribalta wild pitch.9–6
- 8Susac scored on Ribalta wild pitch.9–6
- 8Gilbert grounded out to first, Eldridge scored, Susac to third.9–5
- 8Susac doubled to left, Lee scored, Eldridge to third.9–4
- 8Devers homered to center (408 feet).9–3
- 8Chapman homered to center (409 feet).9–2
- 7Lile singled to right, García Jr. scored.9–1
- 7Crews grounded out to shortstop, Mead scored, García Jr. to third.8–1
- 7García Jr. doubled to left, Wood scored, Mead to third.7–1
- 6Chapman homered to left center (421 feet).6–1
- 6Vivas singled to right, Nuñez scored, Vivas to second.6–0
- 6Nuñez singled to left, Lile scored and Young scored.5–0
- 6Lile singled to left, Crews scored.3–0
- 3Wood homered to center (405 feet), Ruiz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML WSH -105 / SF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- SF: Elo 52.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +4 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +17 Elo | SF 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–13 | Road vs home | 12–1827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 27th of 301474 | Elo rating | 148024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–27 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 37–19 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders | 41–23–4 | 33–30–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 14–10 SF in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.