Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Shaw walked, Happ scored, Ramirez to second, Hoerner to third.4–5
- 9Ramirez singled to left, Suzuki scored, Hoerner to second, Happ to third.4–4
- 8Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to right, Shaw scored.4–3
- 8Carrigg homered to left (401 feet), Freeman scored and Goodman scored.4–2
- 6Shaw tripled to right, Ballesteros scored. Colorado Rockies challenged call on the field was upheld1–2
- 6Carrigg walked, Freeman scored, Johnston to second, Goodman to third.1–1
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to center (434 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML COL +183 / CHC -224
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 67.7%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -196
- COL +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 5.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +128 Elo | CHC 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–25 | Road vs home | 20–159th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 30th of 301405 | Elo rating | 15187th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–36 | 27–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 16–32 |
| Underdog | 35–33 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35–3 | 35–32–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–14 CHC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.