Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe homered to right (371 feet).6–5
- 7Reynolds homered to right (350 feet), Horwitz scored.5–5
- 6Gelof homered to left (360 feet).3–5
- 6Rodríguez singled to center, O'Hearn scored.3–4
- 6Reynolds homered to center (408 feet).2–4
- 4Gonzales grounded out to first, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to second.1–4
- 1Butler doubled to left, Gelof scored.0–4
- 1Kurtz scored, Soderstrom scored on error and Wilson scored on error, Gelof safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Horwitz, Gelof safe at second on error.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 56%
- ML PIT +119 / ATH -144
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- ATH: Elo 54.2%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- ATH -129
- PIT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.2 – 5.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +10 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +29 Elo | ATH 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 16–1925th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 20th of 301486 | Elo rating | 148025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–40 | 39–33 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 42–29–2 | 35–34–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–7 ATH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
