Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Sterlin ThompsonBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean SullivanPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Karros homered to right center (393 feet).6–8
- 8Goodman homered to center (417 feet), Freeman scored.5–8
- 8Rumfield grounded out to first, McCarthy scored, Freeman to third.3–8
- 5Thompson homered to right center (406 feet).2–8
- 4Crow-Armstrong homered to right (364 feet). challenged call on the field was upheld1–8
- 3Thompson homered to left (385 feet).1–7
- 2Bregman hit sacrifice fly to left, Suzuki scored.0–7
- 2Suzuki doubled to left, Hoerner scored.0–6
- 2Swanson homered to left center (384 feet), Kelly scored.0–5
- 2Kelly doubled to right, Shaw scored.0–3
- 2Shaw tripled to center, Bregman scored and Happ scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 65%
- ML COL +172 / CHC -211
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 67.3%, market 64.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -185
- COL +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 5.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +7 | COL: Sean Sullivan: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +126 Elo | CHC 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 64.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.18th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 3014–26 | Road vs home | 21–169th of 30 |
| 1st of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301408 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–36 | 27–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 16–34 |
| Underdog | 37–33 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–37–3 | 35–34–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–15 CHC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.