Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fulford doubled to center, Carrigg scored and Freeman scored.3–4
- 8Gonzales tripled to right, Horwitz scored.3–2
- 8Reynolds singled to center, Triolo scored.2–2
- 8Triolo doubled to right, Valdez scored.1–2
- 4Rumfield homered to right (427 feet).0–2
- 3Castro doubled to right, Tovar scored, Karros to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML PIT -143 / COL +119
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 61.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 6.0 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −26 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 1.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +84 Elo | PIT 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 14–2028th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 18th of 301491 | Elo rating | 140730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–40 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–24 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 37–34 |
| Overs–unders | 43–29–3 | 35–37–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–7 COL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.