Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gelof homered to left (363 feet).12–4
- 7Bolte homered to center (410 feet).12–3
- 7O'Hearn singled to center, Davis scored and Horwitz scored.12–2
- 7Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, Triolo scored, Horwitz to second, Davis to third.10–2
- 7Horwitz walked, Mangum scored, Davis to second, Triolo to third.9–2
- 7Ozuna homered to center (448 feet).8–2
- 6Wilson singled to center, Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored.7–2
- 4O'Hearn homered to left (360 feet), Lowe scored.7–0
- 2Reynolds singled to center, Horwitz scored, Lowe to second.5–0
- 2Lowe singled to center, Triolo scored.4–0
- 1O'Hearn doubled to left, Lowe scored and Reynolds scored.3–0
- 1Reynolds hit a ground rule double, Horwitz scored, Lowe to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML PIT -143 / ATH +119
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -129
- ATH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.5 – 5.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −2 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +3 Elo | ATH 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 16–2026th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 19th of 301488 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–40 | 39–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 42–29–3 | 35–34–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–7 ATH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
