Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Rumfield singled to left, McCarthy scored.1–2
- 1McCarthy homered to center on an inside-the-park home run (341 feet).1–1
- 1Horwitz homered to right (434 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 66%
- ML PIT -225 / COL +183
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.7%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -196
- COL +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 6.0 – 4.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +16 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +40 Elo | PIT 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 15–2027th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 140830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–41 | 39–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–25 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 38–34 |
| Overs–unders | 43–30–3 | 35–38–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–8 COL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.