Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Leody TaverasBatting1-4
- Shane BazPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Colt EmersonBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 1Emerson singled to right, Canzone scored and Young scored.0–3
- 1Young doubled to left, Naylor scored, Canzone to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML BAL +105 / SEA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.6%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +39 Elo | SEA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.35th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 20–1711th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 20th of 301488 | Elo rating | 15186th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–40 | 32–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 23–36 |
| Underdog | 16–19 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 42–29–4 | 36–35–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 16–8 SEA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 24.