San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Sheets singled to center, Machado scored.3–7
- 4Henderson homered to right (386 feet).2–7
- 2Alonso singled to left, Henderson scored and O'Neill scored, Rutschman to second.2–6
- 2Holliday hit sacrifice fly to center, Cowser scored.2–4
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to center, France scored, Wagner to second.2–3
- 1Basallo homered to right center (389 feet), Alonso scored.1–3
- 1Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to right, Ward scored.1–1
- 1Sheets doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML SD +109 / BAL -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.8%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +12 Elo | BAL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 21–1711th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–35 | 33–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 28–37–2 | 39–27–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–5 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.