New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Marcus SemienBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Freddy FerminBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fermin homered to left (366 feet), Song scored.2–3
- 7Semien homered to left center (394 feet).2–1
- 3Tatis Jr. singled to right, Song scored.1–1
- 2Baty singled to center, Semien scored, Ewing to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / SD +104
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.4%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -113
- SD +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 3.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.830th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 151011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–34 | 30–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 12–21 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–30–6 | 24–36–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–9 SD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.